“DE-CODe” of Pulwama attack, Balakot airstrike and 2021 “whatsapp chat”.

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2019 PULWAMA ATTACK

On 14 February 2019, a convoy of vehicles carrying security personnel on the Jammu Srinagar National Highway was attacked by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber at Lethpora (near Awantipora) in the Pulwama district, Jammu and Kashmir, India. The attack resulted in the deaths of 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)^[a] personnel and the attacker. The responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Pakistan-based Islamist terrorist^[2] group Jaish-e-Mohammed. The attacker was Adil Ahmad Dar, a local from Pulwama district, and a member of Jaish-e-Mohammed. India has blamed Pakistan for the attack. Pakistan condemned the attack and denied any connection to it.

• Location
  Lethpora, Pulwama district, Jammu and Kashmir, India
  Coordinates
• 33°57′53″N 74°57′52″E Coordinates: 
• Date:-14 February 2019
  15:15 IST (UTC+05:30)
  Target:-Security personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force
  Attack type:-Suicide attack, car bombing
  Deaths:-40 (+1 suicide bomber)

2019 Balakot airstrike

In the early morning hours of 26 February, India carried out the 2019 Balakot airstrike when Indian warplanes crossed the de facto border in the disputed area of Kashmir and dropped bombs in the vicinity ^{(the area near or surrounding a particular place)} of the town of Balakot in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan.

open-source satellite imagery

Location
Balakot, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan^[1][2]

34°27′48″N 73°19′08″E

• Analysis of open-source satellite imagery by the Atlantic Council‘s Digital Forensics Laboratory,^[18] 
• San Francisco-based Planet Labs,^[19] 
• European Space Imaging,^[20] and
• The Australian Strategic Policy Institute,^[21] has concluded that India did not hit any targets of significance on the Jaba hilltop site in the vicinity of Balakot.^[22][23]

The blast took place on a heavily guarded highway.

Reactions and conclusion

Satellite data assessments

Satellite-data analysis by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute‘s Nathan Ruser concluded that there is “no apparent evidence of more extensive damage and on the face of it does not validate Indian claims regarding the effect of the strikes.”^[69][77][78] Michael Sheldon, a digital forensics analyst from Atlantic Council did another independent investigation on the issue which asserted that no damage was inflicted to any infrastructure around the target-site. It concluded that “something appeared to have gone wrong in the targeting process” and that the botch-up was mysterious in light of the autonomous nature of the supposedly used missiles.^{[79][80][81][82]} A Reuters investigation based on high–resolution satellite imagery by Planet Labs noted an unchanged landscape when compared to an April 2018 satellite photo. It noted that

“there were no discernible holes in the roofs of buildings, no signs of scorching, blown-out walls, displaced trees around the madrasa or other signs of an aerial attack”.

^[83] 

Even higher quality imagery, taken from the WorldView-2 satellite, was later also analysed by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and showed

“that all three weapons missed by similar (but not identical) distances” suggesting “that the misses were caused by a systematic targeting error”.

[84][85]

Satellite imagery, acquired by Planet Labs Inc. on the morning of February 27 and accessed by ASPI, calls this claim into question. No evidence of damage to the facility or nearby areas is visible on the images. Local media have visited the site and published photographs of multiple small craters in the vicinity, but they haven’t been granted access to the facility that was reportedly targeted. Satellite imagery, presented and analysed below, provides no apparent evidence of more extensive damage and on the face of it does not validate Indian claims regarding the effect of the strikes.

European Space Imaging also provided high-resolution image of the site where the strike took place. The satellite imagery was from 27 February 2019, a day after the strike took place.

The image showed that buildings were unharmed and there was no sign of casualties at the site. Managing director Adrian Zevenbergen, claimed that

“there were no signs of scorching, no large distinguishable holes in the buildings and no signs of stress to the surrounding vegetation”.

[86]

By analysing areas of healthy vegetation from the imagery, I’ve been able to identify three clear impact areas between 150 and 200 metres from the edge of the facility. These correspond to photos shared by local journalists and confirm the location of strikes.

Later that day, unnamed Indian defence sources were reported to have leaked to the media the precise munitions that were used in the strike: Israeli-made SPICE-2000 precision-guided bombs. The reporting made it clear that these munitions operate largely through pre-programmed coordinates, and also feature optical recognition sensors to guide the missile to the target. Indeed, the payload dictated the model of fighter jet used, as India’s newer Su-30 fighters are not compatible with the SPICE-2000.

The satellite imagery suggests that the claims made by India’s Ministry of External Affairs of ‘a very large number’ of militants being killed in the strike are likely false.

International

Australia noted its condemnation of Pulwama attack and asked Pakistan to crack down on terrorists operating from its soil. It also asked both India and Pakistan to restrain from actions that would jeopardize peace.^[112] China‘s foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang stated “We hope that both India and Pakistan can exercise restraint and adopt actions that will help stabilize the situation in the region and improve mutual relations”.^[113] France asked both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, saying that it supported Indian actions against terrorism and asked Pakistan to stop allowing its territory to be used by terrorists.^[114] The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation condemned the airstrike and called on both India and Pakistan to show restraint.^[115] United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo termed the attack as a “counter-terrorism action” and reaffirmed US-India ties. He asked both sides to show restraint.^[116]

Investigation

A 12-member team, working with the Jammu and Kashmir Police, was dispatched by the National Investigation Agency to investigate the attack.

Initial research indicated that the vehicle contained more than 300 kilograms of explosives,including 80 kilograms (180 lb) of RDX, a high explosive, and ammonium nitrate. The explosives may have been stolen from a construction site, Lt Gen Hooda said. Originally, he said it was not possible to smuggle them from across the border, but later he said he could not rule it out .

National Investigation Agency was able to establish and confirm the identity of suicide bomber as DNA samples from “meagre fragments of the car” used in suicide attack matched with Adil Ahmad Dar’s father. However, even after a year of investigation, NIA was unable to trace the source of explosives. 

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